BRL: Growing presidential election risks spells more downside trouble - ING

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 30, 2017BRL: downside risks, moderate decline expected - BBH — Octa-0.8%
• Oct 31, 2022Brazil's real down after Lula wins presidential election; Bolsonaro yet to concede-5.8%
• Jul 29, 2026Rabobank flags BRL downside as rate differentials narrow and fiscal risks rise ahead of 2026 elections - VT Markets-0.0%
• Mar 25, 2019Brazilian Real Report - GBP/BRL Surges To 5-Month Best Rate As Former President Arrest Throws Pension Reforms Into Doubt-0.1%
• Oct 1, 2026Brazilian Real Under Pressure Ahead of Election-3.5%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 27, 2024USD to remain resilient, downside risks to the GBP in the months ahead – HSBC — Octa-1.4%
• Jun 20, 2022US dollar to remain resilient amid the re-pricing higher in Fed's rate expectations – ING — Octa-4.2%
• Dec 23, 2025Real slides on election fears, seasonal dollar outflows-0.7%
• Mar 9, 2020The Sprout: Agriculture futures slip as stock market falls in reaction to oil price drop - iPolitics-4.1%
• Aug 29, 2025Market Wire: Dollar Firms As US Inflation Accelerates, Loonie Tumbles On Disappointing Growth Data | Corpay-2.1%