Oil prices fell about 2% to a three-week low on Tuesday as markets weighed talks to end the Iran and Ukraine wars against recent supply disruptions. Brent was heading for its lowest close since October 7 and WTI for its lowest since October 14.
Iran said a deal was still far off, while Qatar was pressing mediation ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Lower crude reduces diesel and freight costs for feed supply chains, but analysts warn that a failed deal could quickly restore the risk premium. Feed buyers should watch energy-linked costs in both directions.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.