In the Context of the US Midterm Elections and Falling Oil, the Mexican Peso Trades at 18.67 per Dollar

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 6, 2025Why oil prices are falling and what it means for the economy : NPR+8.3%
• Jul 26, 2024Canadian dollar posts longest losing streak in six years as oil falls - The Globe and Mail-2.3%
• Oct 31, 2022Canadian dollar slips to six-day low as oil prices fall - The Globe and Mail+5.4%
• Mar 2, 2020US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar | articles | ING THINK-8.1%
• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-7.0%

After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-6.3%
• Dec 20, 2018The Canadian dollar and the price at the gas pump: Why you can’t win for losing - The Globe and Mail-8.1%
• Sep 18, 2026Ringgit opens higher against US dollar as oil prices ease | The Star-0.3%
• May 24, 2019Oil Falls As US-China Trade War, Demand Make 'Recipe for Disaster' - Business Insider-3.6%
• Sep 19, 2019Ringgit at 4.15 to US dollar at end of 2019, says MIDF Research | Malay Mail-2.4%

After 359 past neutral macro events, DXY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Mar 27, 2025Dollar mixed, Mexican peso and Canadian dollar drop on auto tariffs+0.1%
• Apr 13, 2023BIS - The Changing Nexus Between Commodity Prices And The Dollar: Causes And Implications+0.3%
• Jun 13, 2018US Dollar on Cusp of Renewed Downtrend as Faster-Fed Fails to Inspire the Market+1.3%
• Dec 1, 2021Dollar falls; yen and Swiss franc gain in post-Omicron gyrations | The Business Standard-0.3%
• Mar 3, 2020Canadian dollar weakens as investors bet on Bank of Canada matching Fed rate cut - The Globe and Mail+0.3%