
StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop by 0.9% to 184.95 million tonnes, citing better yields in Mato Grosso from fast planting and favorable early-season weather. The consultancy flagged climate risks in Pará, Maranhão and Piauí due to El Niño.
A larger Brazilian crop estimate adds export supply and tends to weigh on soybean and meal prices, while El Niño risk in northern states could limit upside later in the season.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.