Grain under fire: Russian, Ukrainian Black Sea attacks threaten food supply

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Oct 10, 2026Ukraine and Russia's grain harvest under threat amid Black sea attacks+3.7%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.6%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters-5.6%
• Jul 31, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Russian grain lobby says Kyiv's attacks threaten Black Sea exports, global food security | Reuters-1.0%
• Jul 27, 2026Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-2.0%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 10, 2026Ukraine and Russia's grain harvest under threat amid Black sea attacks-0.7%
• Jun 19, 2026Rising Attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea Ports Threaten Grain Export Capacity and Global Supply | Tridge Insights-1.1%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters-2.2%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%
• Oct 1, 2026War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-1.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.