Coffee, cocoa, rice, wheat: which crops are most vulnerable to El Niño?

After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.

• May 29, 2026Sugar cane, rice, coffee and cocoa to feel effects of El Niño | Baking Business-4.1%
• Apr 17, 2023DA assures stable rice supply amid El Niño threat-2.7%
• Oct 27, 2026From maize to coffee, El Nino likely to affect various crops across the world - The HinduBusinessLine+3.5%
• Aug 30, 2023From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens+1.2%
• Sep 28, 2023Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño-3.3%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2025Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining+0.6%
• Feb 23, 2023El Niño expected to bring “normal” wheat crop in Australia - Fastmarkets-3.0%
• Dec 16, 2017Drought leaves U.S. Plains wheat vulnerable to freeze damage+0.3%
• May 2, 2017Storm Damages Midwest Wheat Crop; More Heavy Rain to Come-2.3%
• Feb 26, 2026Wheat export declared amid looming weather risk to crop+0.3%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 2, 2017Storm Damages Midwest Wheat Crop; More Heavy Rain to Come-0.6%
• Oct 1, 2026Historic El Niño puts Brazil crops at risk as Argentina gains a weather edge-1.2%
• Oct 27, 2026From maize to coffee, El Nino likely to affect various crops across the world - The HinduBusinessLine+0.0%
• Aug 24, 2018FAO and WFP concerned about the impact of drought on the most vulnerable in Central America - El Salvador | ReliefWeb-0.9%
• Aug 30, 2023From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens-0.0%