Drought leaves U.S. Plains wheat vulnerable to freeze damage

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-7.6%
• May 1, 2026Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Rivals 2023 Disaster After Drought and Freeze Damage-3.4%
• May 3, 2017U.S. grains: Wheat futures flat as damage assessed - Grainews-6.1%
• May 7, 2026$7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects+5.7%
• Apr 30, 2026Wheat Prices Jump as Drought Threatens U.S. Output - WSJ-2.1%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-1.6%
• Jul 28, 2021Wheat climbs on signs of drought damage in northern U.S. Plains | Financial Post+2.7%
• May 1, 2026Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Rivals 2023 Disaster After Drought and Freeze Damage-2.9%
• May 7, 2026$7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects+3.6%
• Apr 30, 2026Wheat Prices Jump as Drought Threatens U.S. Output - WSJ-3.2%