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A Serasa Experian study released October 27 warns a strong El Niño could cut Brazil's 2026/27 soybean harvest by 9.7%, from about 181 million to 164 million tonnes. Mato Grosso and Goiás account for nearly 80% of the estimated financial exposure, put at R$33 billion.
A potential loss of roughly 17.6 million tonnes would tighten global soybean and meal supply, lifting soybean meal and feed costs, though the outcome depends on how the El Niño evolves.
brznews.comCarlos MendesNov 3, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
