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World Weather Inc. says Brazil's center-south and center-west soybean areas were planted early after September rains, but late-September and October dryness raised El Niño stress concerns. No serious production losses had occurred by the end of October, and early November rain is seen as decisive.
Uncertainty over November rainfall keeps a modest weather risk premium in soybean and meal prices, since any yield shortfall would tighten exports from the world's largest soy supplier.
indexbox.ioNov 2, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
