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WTI crude jumped as high as $73 per barrel early Friday, up over $5 from Thursday's close, after Israel launched a military offensive against Iran. ULSD and RBOB gasoline also rose sharply as the Strait of Hormuz risk came into focus.
Potential disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows threatens global crude availability, supporting higher energy prices and fuel costs for feed mills and transport.
mansfield.energyCassia PazJun 13, 2025After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WTI rose over $5 on the Israeli offensive with Strait of Hormuz supply risk in focus, a direct supply-risk driver.
Crude jumped on the Israel offensive and Strait of Hormuz risk, lifting ULSD through input cost and sentiment.
Weekly review shows crude and ULSD jumping together on Strait of Hormuz risk after the Israeli offensive.
WTI jumped nearly $6 as Strait of Hormuz risk came into focus after the Israeli offensive.
