Brazilian markets sold off after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection, and the real lost 8.5% against the dollar last week. The Bovespa stock index also fell sharply.
Thirty-three of 48 economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to hold its rate at 13.75% at Wednesday's decision.
A sharp real depreciation raises the local-currency cost of imported inputs such as soymeal-competing feed ingredients, fertilizers and fuel. It also makes financing more expensive for Brazilian feed and livestock buyers.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.