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December WTI fell about 7% on 2 November to a two-week low, with RBOB gasoline also sharply lower. The drop followed a report that Trump wanted to give diplomacy with Iran more time before resuming strikes, and Iran's state media said Khamenei had authorised talks with the US.
Saudi crude shipments from the Middle East also continued in October, adding to downward pressure.
Easing risk of renewed strikes on Gulf supply reduces the geopolitical premium in crude and diesel. Continued Saudi and Russian export flows add supply, which points to lower prices unless talks collapse.
barchart.comRich AsplundNov 2, 2026barchart.comRich AsplundNov 3, 2026barchart.comRich AsplundNov 3, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Watch the 39-second version · Crude oil falls about 7% on US-Iran diplomacy hopes: what it means for feed
