Pakistani wheat farmers are cutting back on DAP fertilizer after its price rose 23 percent since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. A 50-kg bag now costs Rs17,183, and farmers are switching to cheaper nitrophosphate (23-23), which costs about 42 percent less.
Gulf shipment disruptions are raising phosphate fertilizer costs, and reduced DAP use could lower Pakistani wheat yields and increase the country's reliance on wheat imports, supporting wheat demand from abroad.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.