
Brent rose 48 cents to $105.25 and WTI rose 47 cents to $96.93 by early Tuesday morning GMT, after reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. The move followed the prior session's sharp decline.
The strike report revives Middle East supply risk, supporting crude and the energy costs that feed into feed logistics and fertilizer production.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.