India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced on August 24 that wheat exports move from prohibited to free, ending the export ban imposed in May 2022. The change reopens India, the world's second-largest wheat producer, to international buyers.
Lifting the ban adds Indian wheat supply to world markets, which is bearish for wheat prices and gives feed buyers an alternative to corn and barley.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 15 past bearish policy events, KWHEAT moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.1%), and +3.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Watch the 39-second version · India lifts four-year wheat export ban: what it means for feed buyers