
Indian officials say the government will likely review its wheat export ban in March 2023, once the winter wheat harvest is clearer. Wheat area is up 25% year on year, and a bumper crop is expected if weather holds.
Since May, the government has permitted about 2.5 million tonnes of exports.
A larger expected crop raises the chance that India lifts its wheat export ban, which would add supply to world wheat markets and pressure prices lower.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.