
France's 2026 soft wheat harvest is estimated at about 31.5 million tonnes, slightly below the five-year average of roughly 32.4 million tonnes, with late-season heat waves hitting yields. Average protein content reached 11.8%, with some regions above 12%, a level sought by certain importers including African buyers.
A smaller French crop supports export prices for European wheat, while better protein quality helps France win business from importers, partly as Black Sea logistics disruptions push buyers toward other origins.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.