Cocereal expects Romania's 2022 soft wheat crop to fall to 7.9 million tonnes from 11.1 million in 2021. Across the EU and Great Britain, soft wheat output is forecast at 139.8 million tonnes, down from 143.2 million, while rapeseed is projected to rise to 20 million tonnes.
A lower EU and Romanian wheat crop would tighten European supply and support wheat prices, though rising rapeseed output partly offsets this for oilseed meal. The forecast is an early estimate and is a modest factor for markets.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.