
China announced 25% duties on 106 US products, including soybeans, less than 24 hours after the US published a list of Chinese imports it intends to target. The effective start date of the new duties has not been set.
China is the largest importer of US soybeans.
Tariffs on US soybeans could shift China's soybean buying to Brazil and Argentina, pushing US beans into other markets and pressuring vegetable oil prices, including palm oil. Soybean meal is key feed for China's hog sector, so the impact on feed costs is also relevant.
After 802 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
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