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Oil prices fell over 3% on Monday after a third day of Iranian-Qatari talks raised hopes of a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict. Brent dropped to about $110.2/bbl and WTI to about $100.8/bbl, while OPEC+ kept December production targets unchanged.
Easing Hormuz supply fears reduce the risk premium in crude and diesel, which feeds through to freight, fertilizer and feed production costs. Continued de-escalation would likely weigh on energy-linked input prices, though renewed strike rumors could reverse the move quickly.
marketscreener.comThomas BarnetNov 2, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
