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Oil prices fell about 3% in Asian trade on Monday after a draft proposal to end the U.S.-Iran war began circulating following Iranian negotiators' departure from Qatar. Iran's Foreign Ministry said no final agreement or Hormuz reopening would occur until the U.S. naval blockade ends and its demands are met.
Easing hopes of a Hormuz reopening reduce the geopolitical risk premium on crude, which lowers diesel and energy input costs for feed production and freight, while a stalled deal keeps supply-driven volatility high.
oilprice.comCharles KennedyNov 2, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
