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Grain futures jumped early after reports that Russia planned to regulate grain prices, raising concern about lower exports. Weak Chinese trade data showing a large drop in soybean imports weighed on broader commodity markets ahead of the Brexit vote.
Possible Russian export restrictions would tighten global wheat supply and support prices, while weaker Chinese soybean imports point to softer soy demand. Overall direction depends on whether Russia enacts measures.
farmprogress.comJan 18, 2019After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports of Russia planning to regulate grain prices and curb exports raised supply concerns that likely carried into the next trading session, though the report is from Jan 18.
