
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday as Iranian-Qatari talks continued aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent settled at $111.84 and WTI at $102.56, after Brent had hit a six-month high.
Talks are continuing amid ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Hopes for a diplomatic deal reduce the risk premium on Gulf crude, which pressures prices. Any breakdown in talks or new tanker attacks could quickly reverse the decline.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.