Dollar faces pressure as markets expect another Fed rate hike in December

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026December Rate Hike Expectations and Expensive Oil: The Dollar Is Back on Top | Investing.com-2.3%
• Nov 5, 2021Canadian dollar steadies as jobs gain supports rate hike bets - Markets - Business Recorder+3.4%
• Apr 17, 2023Indian rupee declines as dollar jumps on Fed policy reassessment - Markets - Business Recorder-5.7%
• Oct 29, 2025Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Dollar and yields rally as Powell pushes back against December rate cut | Newsquawk+0.7%
• May 15, 2026Dollar climbs for fifth straight day as Fed rate hike bets grow-4.4%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jan 27, 2022Dollar jumps as markets brace for larger, faster rate hikes | Reuters+0.1%
• Oct 31, 2022Dollar gains on Fed rate hike expectations-0.1%
• May 12, 2021Eurodollar futures price in Fed hike by December 2022 after inflation spike-0.1%
• Jul 26, 2023Fed lifts rates, Powell leaves door open to another hike in September+0.6%
• Sep 10, 2026Euro slips as dollar rises after ECB rate hike | MarketScreener+0.9%