TSX futures rise as Trump teases 'Concept' of Canada trade deal

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Apr 7, 2026Oil Futures Plunge as Cease-Fire Raises Hopes for Restored Supply - WSJ-6.5%
• Jul 28, 2026Corn Futures Slide as Oil Selloff Triggers Profit-Taking-4.2%
• Mar 27, 2026Crude oil futures decline as US extends Iran peace deal deadline - The HinduBusinessLine+6.6%
• Mar 23, 2026Brent Oil Futures Drop 14% After Trump Delays Strikes on Iran - Bloomberg+1.5%
• Feb 2, 2026NYMEX Overview: Futures Move Lower as Geopolitical Tensions Cool -- OPIS-3.1%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jun 11, 2018CANADA FX DEBT-C$ weakens as Trump-Trudeau fallout adds to trade worries-1.1%
• Apr 7, 2026Oil Futures Plunge as Cease-Fire Raises Hopes for Restored Supply - WSJ-11.7%
• Jul 28, 2026Corn Futures Slide as Oil Selloff Triggers Profit-Taking-2.7%
• Mar 27, 2026Crude oil futures decline as US extends Iran peace deal deadline - The HinduBusinessLine+17.8%
• Mar 23, 2026Brent Oil Futures Drop 14% After Trump Delays Strikes on Iran - Bloomberg+2.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.