European natural gas prices plunge more than 10 pct amid hopes for U.S.-Iran talks

After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.

• Jan 1, 2020European Gas Prices Fall as Ukraine, Russia Deal Averts Crisis-1.1%
• May 6, 2026Brent Crude Price: Oil and gas plunge after report US and Iran near deal to end war+2.4%
• Oct 28, 2024Prompt Month Natural Gas Futures Sink 10% as Geopolitical Risks ‘Evaporate’ — MidDay Market Snapshot-12.5%
• May 10, 2022Gas prices drop as Russia says sanctions will not affect gas payments from Europe+6.5%
• May 6, 2026Oil and gas prices fall sharply, driven by hopes of strait of Hormuz reopening – as it happened | Business | The Guardian+2.4%

After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2026Fertilizer Prices Fall After Iran Says Strait Is Open - TT-2.7%
• May 3, 2024Russia gains by turning natural gas into urea+1.0%
• Jun 24, 2026NOLA urea prices drop 55% from April peak as Hormuz ceasefire and renewed Chinese exports reshape the market — Fertilizer Daily-1.9%
• Jun 22, 2026Urea fertilizer prices tumble as strait reopens | The Western Producer-2.4%
• Aug 25, 2026UN proposes Oman-based mechanism to restore fertilizer transit through Strait of Hormuz — Fertilizer Daily+11.1%