
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina's wheat crop from 21 to 23.8 million tonnes. Harvest was 6.7% complete, with an average yield of 21.3 quintals per hectare, above the previous season at the same date.
The exchange linked the upgrade to better yield prospects and more supply for coming months.
A larger Argentine crop adds Southern Hemisphere wheat supply during a period of Black Sea uncertainty, which is bearish for wheat export prices and feed-grain alternatives.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.