
Illinois ended October 5-7 degrees above average, likely one of its top 10 warmest Octobers, allowing fast harvest progress. Nationally, 60% of corn and 79% of soybeans were harvested by October 25, and an Illinois farmer reports corn yields 20 to 25 bushels below last year.
Fast harvest progress adds to near-term farmer selling pressure, while lower reported yields in parts of Illinois point to tighter local supply than last year, a mixed signal for feed grain prices.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.