Forecasters Expect a Mild Winter With Super El Niño. Here's What They Still Can't Predict

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 13, 2024El Niño is dead. Here’s what to expect in the coming months | CNN-2.1%
• Jun 8, 2023Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb+3.5%
• Aug 14, 2017What Does Lack of El Niño, La Niña Mean For Winter? | The Weather Channel-2.0%
• Oct 6, 2018How to prepare for an El Niño winter | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast-0.3%
• May 1, 2026"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers-1.4%

After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 8, 2023Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb+2.0%
• Sep 1, 2023Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24-0.8%
• Dec 9, 2016Long-term forecasters rethinking weather prediction methods+0.2%
• Feb 17, 2026Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET+0.1%
• May 14, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer+1.3%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 8, 2023Hello, El Niño – What To Expect for the 2023 Crop - AgWeb-0.0%
• Jan 8, 2024El Niño winter comes for wheat-2.5%
• Jul 13, 2023What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply+3.7%
• Jun 24, 2020Winter climate outlook hard to predict with mixed signals | Farm Online | ACT+0.3%
• Jul 18, 2023How will El Nino impact the world’s wheat and global food supply - The University of Sydney+2.0%