◂ Event Timeline

Nov 2, 2026MACROBrazil

Negative stock and currency reaction to the second round of the election outweighs the first-round rally; see numbers

Brazilian assets moved sharply after Lula's re-election: the Ibovespa fell 18.1% over the week following the runoff, while the spot dollar rose 9.1%, closing at R$5.4442. The reversal erased earlier gains from the first-round rally.

WHY IT MATTERS

The sharp real depreciation and equity sell-off reflect a higher Brazilian fiscal risk premium, which affects the currency competitiveness of Brazilian soybean and corn exports.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
valor.globo.comMaria Fernanda SalinetNov 2, 2026

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullish

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Mar 16, 2020Brazil: Stocks dive, currency closes at new record low - The Business Times+5.0%
May 25, 2017StanChart’s chief economist says these four currencies will move most on Fed shock-1.1%
Dec 9, 2021Strong dollar weighs on Latin American currencies | Financial Post+3.1%
Jun 6, 2018Brazil currency skids as election woes add to pessimism-2.7%
Nov 17, 2022Brazil's real, stocks slide after budget proposal; other EM currencies weak | Financial Post+0.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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