Argentina's 2027 budget bill projects export duty revenue rising 41.3% to about 12.06 trillion pesos, or roughly 17% in real terms, even as the duty schedule steadily lowers rates from January. Soybean duties would fall by 0.25 points monthly, reaching 21% by the end of the Milei term.
Gradual duty cuts keep Argentine export flows steady while the budget assumes higher export volumes, a mildly bearish signal for soymeal and corn export prices over time.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.