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López Obrador won Mexico's presidential election on July 1 with over 53 percent of the vote and his MORENA party secured majorities in both chambers. He pledged absolute support for NAFTA and a respectful renegotiation, and the peso rallied 2.4 percent afterward.
Reassurance on NAFTA lowers the risk of a sharp cut in Mexican demand for US corn, DDGS and soy products, which supports export demand. The stronger peso also makes US feed imports cheaper for Mexican buyers.
ussec.orgJul 9, 2018After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
