China's domestic DAP market is in its off-season with weak downstream demand, while global DAP supply is tightening and prices are rising. China's long-awaited DAP export policy was officially implemented the prior week, and exports are expected to increase in May.
Resumed Chinese DAP exports would ease tight global phosphate supply and could cap the recent price climb, which matters for feed-mineral and fertilizer cost planning.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.