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Normal rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm belts supports near-term harvesting, with September Malaysian CPO output at 2.12 million tonnes. The article says El Niño with an ONI of +2.2 threatens late-2026 and 2027 yields, with palm stocks 83% above average.
Expected yield losses from El Niño in 2027 are a bullish medium-term factor for palm oil, though high stocks limit near-term upside.
palmoileconomics.comNov 2, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
