FX weekly forecast: US mid-term elections to trigger fresh weakness in the US dollar?

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2024US Dollar Forecast: Fed’s easing weighs on the Dollar+0.9%
• Feb 9, 2017(LEAD) Dollar forecast to stay weak in short term | Yonhap News Agency+0.1%
• Aug 28, 2020USD: Fed has set up the dollar for further weakness - MUFG - Forex Crunch-0.5%
• Nov 20, 2020ING Predictions: "We're Forecasting Broad-Based Dollar Weakness, By 5-10% Vs Most Currencies-0.4%
• Mar 31, 2023Dollar up vs. euro but remains on track for weekly loss after inflation data-0.1%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2023Dollar up vs. euro but remains on track for weekly loss after inflation data+0.3%
• Mar 26, 2025Why do we expect further weakening of the US dollar? - AP Institutional | Invesco-0.0%
• Jul 30, 2021EUR/USD Forecast: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Climbs To Three-Week High On Disappointing US GDP-0.4%
• Jan 29, 2018G10 FX Week Ahead: State of the dollar | ING THINK+0.2%
• Nov 30, 2023US dollar gains but set for worst monthly loss in a year, euro falls-1.6%