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USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks report showed old-crop U.S. corn ending stocks 32 percent above a year earlier, reaching a 30-year record of 2.295 billion bushels. The figure came in below the trade's pre-report average estimate of 2.35 billion bushels, and corn prices rallied.
Record supplies normally weigh on prices, but a number below expectations tightened the balance sheet and supported futures. The surprise shows the market was pricing in more supply than USDA reported.
iowafarmbureau.comOct 2, 2017After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record but below-forecast corn stocks of 2.295 billion bushels were a bullish supply surprise driving the rally and the volatility that followed.
