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Russia's deputy foreign minister Alexander Alimov said Moscow sees no prospect of reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative in any form, including UN proposals. He said Russia is reviewing proposals from several countries and holding talks with Turkey on keeping grain shipments moving safely.
With no formal safety framework, freight and insurance costs for Black Sea wheat, corn and sunflower oil are likely to stay elevated, supporting firmer export offers and reinforcing supply risk premiums.
portcroft.comNov 1, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
