
US natural gas prices hovered near $2.90/MMBtu, close to a one-week low. Forecasts for mostly warmer-than-normal weather in the first half of November are keeping heating demand subdued.
Lower 48 output recovered to about 113.3 bcfd, outweighing firmer LNG feedgas and tightening storage.
Mild weather and recovering output add supply relative to demand, which pressures US natural gas prices. Strong LNG feedgas limits the downside.
After 104 past bearish weather events, NATGAS moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.