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US natural gas futures fell about 3% to a one-week low as output rose and forecasts pointed to the eastern heat wave ending within days. Storage injections were running above normal, leaving stockpiles about 6% above the five-year average.
Rising output and a growing storage surplus point to softer gas prices, which reduce power and fertilizer input costs over the coming weeks.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.