
February Nymex natural gas closed down 0.118 (-3.35%) on Thursday after WSI forecasts showed broad above-normal temperatures across the western and central US over the next week. The weekly EIA report showed a larger-than-expected inventory draw of 119 bcf, but production near record highs and mild demand outlooks weighed on prices.
Warmer forecasts reduce heating demand and weigh on natural gas prices, while record US output adds bearish supply pressure. Lower gas prices reduce energy costs for feed processing, and the effect is modest for feed grain prices.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.