
US natural gas futures held near a one-month low on Friday, with the November contract at $2.349 per mmBtu. Rising LNG feedgas flows partly offset bearish forecasts for mild weather through early November.
The March 2025 contract traded at a record low premium over April 2025.
Mild weather is reducing heating demand, but growing LNG export pull limits the downside. Price moves in natural gas have only indirect effects on feed commodity costs.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.