Oil prices slipped more than 3% on Monday after Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Brent fell $3.68 to $109.75 and WTI fell $3.43 to $100.69.
Analysts said the market remained alert to possible rhetorical escalation pushing Brent toward $120 after the midterm elections.
The fall reflects a reduced war-driven supply premium, which eases energy and fertilizer costs for feed producers. The direction remains uncertain until a deal is reached or talks break down.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.