
Crude oil fell nearly 3% on Monday, with WTI trading at $101.01 and Brent falling $3.47 to $109.96. Investors weighed Iran-Qatar diplomatic consultations against the risk of renewed US military action against Iran.
Brent was down 3.84% over the past week, while WTI was marginally higher on a weekly basis.
Diplomatic hopes are reducing the energy risk premium, which lowers diesel and fertilizer cost expectations for feed. Renewed military action would reverse this move and tighten supply.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.