Agreement on grain export through Black Sea expected soon

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+0.1%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+0.7%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.2%
• Nov 17, 2022Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports+1.0%
• Sep 25, 2026Russia can restart 80% of Black Sea grain export terminals if attacks stop | Reuters-2.9%

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+4.8%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+1.6%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.5%
• Nov 17, 2022Black Sea grain export deal extended, but Russia wants more on fertiliser exports-1.7%
• Sep 25, 2026Russia can restart 80% of Black Sea grain export terminals if attacks stop | Reuters-0.3%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.