PhosAgro's CEO Andrey Guryev said bumper harvests in the US, Canada and Russia depleted soil nutrients, which should lift fertilizer demand in the spring 2017 season. He also reported Chinese phosphate producers announced substantial production cuts to defend prices near $305-310 per tonne.
Expected spring demand recovery and Chinese output cuts could firm phosphate and urea prices from multi-year lows, raising input costs for feed grain growers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.