Nymex natural gas prices rose nearly 15 percent over the past month to about $3.30/MMBtu as U.S. inventories fell toward a 13-year low. Storage on September 28 was 636 Bcf below a year earlier and 607 Bcf below the five-year average.
Low storage ahead of peak heating demand is pushing gas prices higher, which raises energy and nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed producers.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.