The NMPF forecast says the US all-milk price fell $0.40 to $18.50 per hundredweight from January to February. Milk prices have been pressured by rising US milk and cheese output and weak global nonfat dry milk markets, and CME block cheese fell nearly $0.50 from its February high.
USDA expects 2017 all-milk prices between $17.80 and $18.40.
Expanding milk and cheese output and weak powder prices point to lower dairy values, which reduces prices for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.