
USDA's February supply and demand report raised its 2021 milk production estimate again as farmers keep adding cows. The agency cut its cheese and butter price forecasts and lowered the 2021 all-milk price by 50 cents to $17.55 per hundredweight.
Nonfat dry milk and whey were projected higher on strong demand.
Rising herd size and output point to heavier milk supply, which pressures Class III and Class IV prices and lowers the cost outlook for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.