
USDA's May supply and demand report projects lower US milk production in 2023 with growth in 2024. The agency raised its 2023 butter and nonfat dry milk price forecasts, lowered cheese and whey prices, and cut the 2023 all-milk price forecast by 15 cents to $20.50/cwt, with 2024 set at $19.90.
Lower projected Class III and all-milk prices signal weaker dairy-based feed demand and lower returns for dairy producers, which can pressure dairy herd sizes and related feed purchasing.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.