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The US Department of Commerce has removed the anti-dumping import duty on PhosAgro's urea fertilizer. PhosAgro plans a new 500 kt-per-year granulated urea line in 2017, with surplus output possibly going to the US.
Removing the duty opens the US, which imported over 8 million tonnes of urea last year, to more Russian supply. This adds competition and downward pressure on US urea prices.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.